We should expect more strikes on energy infrastructure, especially in the east and center of Ukraine. Kharkiv, the largest city in the east, will be one of the main targets of Russian missile attacks. It can be assumed that the Kremlin will try to turn the eastern territories into an uninhabitable "gray zone" with destroyed power grids, power generation, social infrastructure and housing. This is confirmed by numerous statements by Russian politicians about a "security zone" in eastern Ukraine (free of Ukrainian military and people in general). By the fall of 2024, this could lead to a new humanitarian crisis and new refugee flows, including to Europe. (Many residents are already fleeing Kharkiv due to power outages). Coinciding with the 2024 election cycle, the crisis will be used by the Kremlin as a hybrid form of pressure on the Western democracies.