The two scenarios you proposed are obviously mutually exclusive. That's why I don't consider them in the article. Economic boom in Russia is possible after its military defeat (collapse of the economy), this scenario seems optimal. Similarly, economic growth was possible after Russia's defeat in the Crimean War of 1853-1856 and the "great reforms" of Emperor Alexander II. After Russia's defeat in the Russo-Japanese War 1904-1905, its economic growth rate was the highest and was maintained until World War I, which brought a new economic crisis and revolution. Defeat should not be feared, anyone familiar with economic theory knows that a crisis is followed by a period of recovery, any crisis cannot last forever.