Anton Krutikov
3 min readNov 3, 2023

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The opportunity to be heard is certainly important. As a Russian citizen who worked in a think tank in Moscow developing strategies for the government (my family lives in Ukraine), I fully support any initiative to end the war and save lives. The question is the methods and the price you are prepared to pay. I completely disagree with your article and consider it a perfect example of political myopia, dominated by political clichés that have long since lost all meaning in the current conflict.

First of all, I completely disagree with the terminology of this article ("Russia" and "they" are too abstract. Peace treaties are concluded by national leaders, supported by their elites, and then ratified by parliaments). Any international treaty needs negotiating parties.

Fundamental question: With whom do you plan to negotiate peace? Is any peace possible now between the authoritarian Zelensky and the totalitarian Putin regime? If so, will such a peace be durable and long-lasting? We definitely have a huge legitimacy problem (on both sides), with Putin's regime having repeatedly proven its lack of credibility. To confuse the interests of Putin and his close circle, who started the war, with the interests of Russia and its people is to make a fatal mistake, unforgivable from both a practical and moral point of view.

For a just and lasting peace a new political leadership is needed in Russia, Ukraine (and Belarus). This will be the first and decisive condition. The issue of borders will not (and should not) be a matter of principle, as a new architecture of European security and guarantees for all countries participating in the peace treaty will be in place.

Secondly, I disagree with the methodology of the article, as its main method in working out the future contours of a peace settlement is the "business as usual" approach.

You express concern that Europe has lost access to cheap Russian gas and oil because of the economic sanctions imposed on Russia. You want cheap oil and gas (just like the Hungarian prime minister, autocrat and corrupt Viktor Orban). It doesn't work that way. Putin didn't start this war to trade with the West as before. He deliberately broke the rules of the game. And in place of the chaos that will engulf a freezing Europe he was going to build something new. The Hungarian model of dependence on the Kremlin was supposed to be extended to the entire EU. The first steps in this direction are already in place: the victory of pro-Russian forces in the parliamentary elections in Slovakia, the growing popularity of the Alternative for Germany (AD) and Sahra Wagenknecht in the East German states. The fall of Olaf Scholz's cabinet amid his monstrous anti-rating is only a matter of time. (Germans, like you, don't want to pay the high bills). Cheap energy resources, as we can see, have been used very successfully by the Kremlin as a hybrid weapon for years.

As for the Kremlin's political goals, they were made quite clear in Lavrov's ultimatum to NATO and the US in December 2021. Russia needs a new international security architecture in Europe and a return of NATO to its 1997 borders. Moscow needs a new puppet regime in Kiev, just like it already has in Minsk. No one in the Kremlin wants new Ukrainian territories; the Kremlin needs control over all of Ukraine, as well as the Baltics and the non-aligned status of Eastern and Southern Europe. Lavrov made this issue very clear by saying that all armaments should be withdrawn from Romania and Bulgaria, NATO should return to 1997 borders. It is deeply naive and politically short-sighted to offer Russia concessions in the form of Ukrainian territories that it has already seized. It would be an unequal exchange for the Kremlin. This war is being waged not for Ukrainian territories, but for the future world order. Putin has repeated this many times, most recently speaking at the Valdai International Forum in September 2023.

We have a good saying in Russia: “Mincemeat cannot be turned back on.” What happened on 24 February 2022 has no way back.

Europe will pay a much higher price if Putin wins. It will be incomparable to the gas and oil prices you pay today. The business as usual approach does not work in global conflicts, you need above all a certain set of values to end this war.

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Anton Krutikov
Anton Krutikov

Written by Anton Krutikov

Top writer in history and politics. Historian and political analyst based in London, UK.

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