The Elites in Moscow are Bringing Russia Closer to Political Collapse. Can They Survive?

Moscow from a bird’s-eye view. The Kremlin can be seen in the distance. Photo by the author

In classical chess, the situation in which Russian President Vladimir Putin currently finds himself is called a zugzwang. Each new move of the player only worsens their position. Putting the opponent in zugzwang is a common way to help the superior side win a game, and in some cases, it is necessary in order to make the final win possible. But what if we don’t have a superior side?

Putin cannot afford to lose the war in Ukraine; military defeat would mean a loss of power for him. But he cannot win this war either, because he has no resources. Even the partial mobilization announced on September 21 is unlikely to change the balance on the frontline. Putin is stuck in Ukraine and cannot get out. He is already asking for negotiations. It is time, in his opinion, to fix the status quo. So far, there is no evidence that he will succeed. What are the prospects for Putin’s elites amidst the approaching political collapse?

It should not be forgotten that the collapse of the political system in Russia has already brought Vladimir Putin to the pinnacle of power twice. The first time was in 1991, after the collapse of the USSR. At that time, Putin, a former KGB officer, took an important position in the mayor’s office in St. Petersburg. He became a deputy to Anatoly Sobchak, who…