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Russia’s New Offensive: Disinformation or Reality?
Rumors that the Russian army was preparing a new offensive against Ukraine appeared in mid-December. In recent weeks, even the exact dates have been mentioned, i.e., before February 15. Then the date of a possible offensive was pushed back to late February. Among other things, there was talk of a possible invasion of Kiev from Belarus. How much can we believe this?
As early as December 13, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba mentioned preparations for a major Russian offensive. On December 15, the same forecast was given by the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhnyy and Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov. Reznikov suggested that the next wave of offensive would probably be in February, as in 2022.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) conceded in a Dec. 18 summary that the Russian Defense Ministry was trying to bolster its reputation after military setbacks and was actively preparing to resume an offensive against Ukraine in the coming months.
On January 30, ISW again stressed that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive in the coming months. On the same day, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made the same suggestion while speaking during a visit to Korea. Stoltenberg said there were no signs that Putin was preparing to end the war.