How Will Mass Exodus Affect Russia’s Political Future?
The partial mobilization announced by Vladimir Putin on September 21 has led to serious demographic and social changes, the consequences of which have yet to be assessed. According to official statements, as many as 318,000 Russian men have already been called to the war with Ukraine. Unofficial data indicate that this number is even higher — from 500,000 to a million people. Against the backdrop of these events, men (sometimes with their families) began to leave the country en masse already in September. They fled to Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, as well as to Finland and Norway. Even exotic routes, such as Mongolia, have emerged. The exact number of those who left is unknown, but Kazakhstan alone says more than 200,000 Russians have entered the country since the announcement of mobilization. Georgia is experiencing an economic boom; experts claim that the Georgian economy will grow by 10% after 100,000 emigrants from Russia arrive in the country. According to various estimates, mobilization and emigration “took away” from 700,000 to a million citizens from Russia.
This is the second largest wave of emigration from Russia since 1917–1922. Just as 100 years ago, today these people are also fleeing war.
The most important and serious consequence of emigration is the flight of intellectual, independent…