Member-only story
Four Scenarios for Russia’s Future
In Russia, only those who make negative predictions are never wrong, this truth has long been well known. However, even the Russian reality periodically brings surprises. In our era of global uncertainty, political turbulence and military conflicts, having knowledge of the future becomes truly invaluable. What is really needed is not prophecies and predictions, but dispassionate analysis. In this article, I will discuss four possible scenarios for Russia’s future, their interconnections and implications.
Collapse of the economy
The most promising and least painful scenario seems to be a way out of the current political deadlock through the collapse of the Russian economy. The system of the Russian Federation under Putin is economic in nature, as it was created for the purpose of enrichment by former Marxists, and the mechanisms of its future disintegration will have primarily an economic dimension.
The inability of the system to satisfy the needs of the elites and ordinary citizens will raise the question of its restart, and perhaps even a complete transformation. The elites’ interest in the existence of the Russian Federation is supported primarily by economic benefits and tools. The Kremlin “buys” the loyalty of the elites and the broad masses of the people through a social contract: money in exchange for support…